The Red Sox trade winds aren't really blowing, but here are a few thoughts...

I have yet to hear of a Red Sox trade rumor that would make them a significantly better team. Adding Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye, Ty Wiggington, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will not make the team much better overall. Ignoring even the cost of acquiring one of these players in terms of players and prospects, you can only consider the marginal benefit of adding the player, not the player’s overall stats.

The marginal benefit of player added = performance of [player added – player replaced]. This formula applies however you want to measure performance, whether it be traditionally (like using home runs) or sabermetrically (like VORP), as I choose to do. For example, adding a Teixeira, who is on pace for 23 home runs, would add 8 home runs if he replaced Kevin Youkilis (projected 15 HR), but cost a home run if Youkilis slide over to third and Mike Lowell (projected 24 HR) was replaced.

There really haven’t been any outstanding trade rumors involving the Sox in the past few days, but a few new names have popped up, so I’ll analyze those deals (more to come as the rumors hopefully start to fly).

1) Red Sox trade Michael Bowden, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn

Dunn plays first base, Youkilis plays third base, and the Sox trade Lowell in a separate deal for prospects.

Verdict: No thanks. Dunn (projected 17.28 VORP remaining) would add almost two wins over Mike Lowell, but the asking price for Dunn is reportedly steep right now. If the price were to drop to something like Bowden and Moss/David Murphy, then I’d probably think about pulling the trigger. However, Dunn’s contract allows him to opt out after this year if he’s traded, and he only has one more year either way, so he could be a costly rental in terms of prospects surrendered.

Quick notes:

1) I completely agree with Nick Caffardo’s column on Wednesday in the Boston Globe about not looking at small sample sizes when deciding whether or not the Sox need to make a trade. Last week at this time, the Sox had lost 8 of 11 and the sky was falling. This week, they’ve won 6 of 7 and are unstoppable. I think Theo Esptein has to make some kind of move to ensure there aren’t any more downward trends like losing 8 of 11.

2) I’ve written about wanting to trade Wily Mo Pena because he isn’t a role player on a championship-caliber team, but games like last nights (2 doubles, a laser of a home run, 4 RBI), make me hope even more for a torn calf muscle or any season-ending injury just so the Sox can hold on to him.

3) I’d be really happy if they traded Kasson Gabbard right now and wish he had pitched a lot better last night so that he could have maintained a little more traded value. I look at it this way: he’s never going to be more valuable in a trade than he is now. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who was on a roll, but eventually he’ll start to get hit. Yes, he’s a sinker-baller, but those types of pitchers are usually less consistent from season due to a high dependence on defensive help. He doesn’t project to be more than a fourth or fifth starter, so any reasonable offer for him should be enough incentive for the Sox to trade him.

Ten More Shopping Days for Theo...

So now the Yankees have closed to within eight games of the Red Sox (although the lead it was down to seven). After being eleven games back on July 1^st and twelve and a half games back on June 1^st, the Yankees have gained three games in one week and have their fans believing they can come back from the dead and erase the once enormous deficit. Red Sox Nation is panicking, especially after losing eight of twelve, including three in a row to lowly Kansas City and Chicago.

There are ten shopping days left until baseball’s Christmas, the July 31^st trading deadline. Theo Epstein has been busy searching for ways to improve his team but has yet to find a suitable player at an acceptable price, according to the Boston media. What can Epstein really do to improve the team? The major areas that he's expected to focus on are potential upgrading the pitching staff if a blockbuster starter becomes available or if the price of relief pitching drops and upgrading the offense by adding a righthanded bat. There really aren't a lot of moving pieces on this current Sox team. Wily Mo Pena is likely to be dealt because he's not a suitable role player on a championship team, and it's possible that the bullpen could be shaken up or that Julian Tavarez will move from the rotation to the bullpen. With Epstein, the possibility of a blockbuster is always in play; such a move would likely involve Coco Crisp or Mike Lowell. Who really knows? In the past, Theo has stood pat (2006), made marginal moves (like Suppan in 2003), and made a blockbuster trade (Nomar in 2004).

The best way to analyze any trade is to gauge the expected return versus the expected cost. In baseball, there are no certainties as to who will do what in the future, but with advances in sabermetrics, predictability has become more and more accurate. Also, when adding a player to the roster, like trading Lowell, moving Youkilis to third base and trading for Mark Teixeria, it's important to understand that the team is only adding whatever extra value Teixeria might provide above and beyond what Lowell might have.

Here's how I'm going to analyze these potential trades. Baseball Prospectus published projections for each player before the season started and in the past these projections have been the best available on average; some players might outperform them, some might under perform them, but they generally work. I'll focus on the stat VORP, basically the number of runs added for hitters or prevented for pitchers above a fringe level replacement level player; a VORP of 10 is basically 1 win, 20 is 2, etc. To balance expectations with reality, I'll mix the player's actual performance level to this point with expectations to project how many runs they'll add or save over the remaining two and a half months of the season. (Briefly, the formula is [(VORP-Exp VORP) + (VORP/Game x Games Left)]/2. It's by no means perfect, but it helps account for good players in bad slumps like Jermaine Dye or extremely hot players like Mike Lowell.)

Let's look at some trades that might help the Sox. I'll focus on what they might have to give up, but I'm not going to go into great detail to project what kind of VORP Jon Lester might have 3 years from now if they trade him; I'll save that for a later post if anything significant happens.

NOTE: IF YOU WANT ME TO ANALYZE A TRADE THAT YOU DON'T SEE HERE, FEEL FREE TO ASK; THIS GOES FOR THE RED SOX OR ANY OTHER TEAM

1) Red Sox trade Coco Crisp, Michael Bowden, and Brandon Moss to White Sox for Jermaine Dye.

Dye (11.4 VORP for the rest of the season) replaces Crisp (9.49 VORP left), playing right field with JD Drew sliding over to center and the Sox presumably trading Wily Mo Pena and calling up Jacoby Ellsbury to back up Drew.
Verdict: I'd have to say no to this trade. While defense is overrated, it would certainly suffer. Adding 2 runs of production for the rest of the season probably isn't worth Bowden and Moss, not to mention Crisp over the next year and two months. Dye would be a costly rental, as he is a free agent at the end of the season.

2) Red Sox trade Crisp, Bowden, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Ken Griffey Jr.
Griffey (7.06 VORP left) does the same thing as Dye would, playing right with Drew in center.
Verdict: Absolutely not. The defense would suffer, Griffey could get hurt, and the offense would lose 2 runs of production. Also, Griffey carries a $12.5 mil contract into next season AND a $4 mil buyout in 2009.

3) Red Sox trade Crisp, Bowden, and Hansen to Arizona for Eric Byrnes.
Verdict: No thanks. The defense wouldn't suffer here, but Byrnes (3.31 VORP remaining) costs the offense 6 runs and is a rental like Dye. He certainly would bring hustle and desire to the table, but not enough of a bat, unless he continues his torrid pace.

4) Red Sox trade Wily Mo Pena and a low level prospect to Kansas City for Reggie Sanders.
Sanders (7.05 VORP left, adjusted for playing time), a battle tested playoff veteran, replaces Pena (4.4 VORP left) as a righthanded threat off the bench for Terry Francona.
Verdict: Yes. Sanders is far more reliable than Pena, so he'd make a better pinch hitter, even though his 3 runs added are not likely to be significant. Pena is a talented young hitter, but extremely raw still, and isn't a role player on a championship-caliber team. Personally, I'd like to see Pena tear a hamstring and sit on the DL for the rest of the year, but it looks like he'll be dealt.

5) Red Sox trade Pena and prospect to Oakland for Mike Piazza.
Piazza (7.32 VORP left) replaces Pena on the bench and provides insurance should Varitek go down.
Verdict: Yes. Again, 3 runs isn't much of a contribution, but Piazza is battled tested and has pop. The only problem would be that the Sox would have to drop a pitcher and bring up a 4th outfielder, because Piazza can't play the outfield.

6) Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz, Brandon Moss, and Michael Bowden to Texas for Mark Teixeira, and trade Mike Lowell in a separate deal to San Diego for Scott Linebrink.
Youkilis slides to third, Teixeira plays first, Linebrink replaces Pineiro in the pen.
Verdict: No thanks. Teixeira (12.28 VORP left) adds nearly 10 runs over Lowell (2.68 VORP left), who historically collapses in the second half. Linebrink (3.7 VORP left) prevents less than a run less than Pineiro (3.3 VORP left), but Pineiro's projection is tainted by high preseason expectations, so the gap could be more. Texieria is signed through next year, but will certainly test free agency after the season and likely won't be resigned. The Sox would be giving up way to much in my opinion to make this deal, especially given Lowell's clubhouse popularity.

7) Red Sox trade Buchholz, Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and a lower prospect to Florida for Miguel Cabrera and trade Mike Lowell for Linebrink.
Verdict: Yes, please. Cabrera (26.09 VORP left) adds 2 wins over Lowell, plus is arbitration eligible through 2009, meaning he's under the Sox control either as a player or as a huge trade asset until then. He's only 24 and according to ESPN's Buster Olney has the most RBIs at his age out of any player in the last 50 years. He's playoff tested, has won a World Series already, and his top 5 comparable players through age 23 on baseballreference.com are Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Joe Medwick, and Mickey Mantle, all Hall of Famers. The only issue with Cabrera is his hefty weight, but I think it's worth the risk. This is a Theo-type deal, one where he gives up valuable, yet unproven, assets, but gets back tremendous proven talent. Such a deal would help the Sox in the short and long term, despite the prohibitive cost in talent. The Marlins would get a lot of young talent back and face losing Cabrera anyways as he gets too expensive.

8) Red Sox trade Jon Lester to Texas for Eric Gagne.
Gagne (7.05 VORP left) effectively replaces Pineiro, preventing an additional 4 runs, but making the bullpen much more dominant.
Verdict: No. This would be a panic move, regardless of whether Lester becomes a good major league pitcher. It would be the equivalent of paying $15 for a gallon of milk, to reference Epstein's explanation of his decision to stand pat last year at the deadline.


Again, feel free to ask me to do more comparisons as the trade rumors flow in, and please comment on my analysis whether you agree or disagree.