The Red Sox trade winds aren't really blowing, but here are a few thoughts...

I have yet to hear of a Red Sox trade rumor that would make them a significantly better team. Adding Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye, Ty Wiggington, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia will not make the team much better overall. Ignoring even the cost of acquiring one of these players in terms of players and prospects, you can only consider the marginal benefit of adding the player, not the player’s overall stats.

The marginal benefit of player added = performance of [player added – player replaced]. This formula applies however you want to measure performance, whether it be traditionally (like using home runs) or sabermetrically (like VORP), as I choose to do. For example, adding a Teixeira, who is on pace for 23 home runs, would add 8 home runs if he replaced Kevin Youkilis (projected 15 HR), but cost a home run if Youkilis slide over to third and Mike Lowell (projected 24 HR) was replaced.

There really haven’t been any outstanding trade rumors involving the Sox in the past few days, but a few new names have popped up, so I’ll analyze those deals (more to come as the rumors hopefully start to fly).

1) Red Sox trade Michael Bowden, Brandon Moss, and Craig Hansen to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn

Dunn plays first base, Youkilis plays third base, and the Sox trade Lowell in a separate deal for prospects.

Verdict: No thanks. Dunn (projected 17.28 VORP remaining) would add almost two wins over Mike Lowell, but the asking price for Dunn is reportedly steep right now. If the price were to drop to something like Bowden and Moss/David Murphy, then I’d probably think about pulling the trigger. However, Dunn’s contract allows him to opt out after this year if he’s traded, and he only has one more year either way, so he could be a costly rental in terms of prospects surrendered.

Quick notes:

1) I completely agree with Nick Caffardo’s column on Wednesday in the Boston Globe about not looking at small sample sizes when deciding whether or not the Sox need to make a trade. Last week at this time, the Sox had lost 8 of 11 and the sky was falling. This week, they’ve won 6 of 7 and are unstoppable. I think Theo Esptein has to make some kind of move to ensure there aren’t any more downward trends like losing 8 of 11.

2) I’ve written about wanting to trade Wily Mo Pena because he isn’t a role player on a championship-caliber team, but games like last nights (2 doubles, a laser of a home run, 4 RBI), make me hope even more for a torn calf muscle or any season-ending injury just so the Sox can hold on to him.

3) I’d be really happy if they traded Kasson Gabbard right now and wish he had pitched a lot better last night so that he could have maintained a little more traded value. I look at it this way: he’s never going to be more valuable in a trade than he is now. He’s a soft-tossing lefty who was on a roll, but eventually he’ll start to get hit. Yes, he’s a sinker-baller, but those types of pitchers are usually less consistent from season due to a high dependence on defensive help. He doesn’t project to be more than a fourth or fifth starter, so any reasonable offer for him should be enough incentive for the Sox to trade him.