If the game is on the line and you’re a typical Red Sox fan, who do you want coming to the plate? David Ortiz. (Or if you’re a typical Yankee fan who don’t you want coming up?) What about this season? Do you still feel that way?
When most Red Sox fans think of David Ortiz, they think of home runs, a big smile, and clutch, game-winning at-bats. In the past, such a description of Ortiz was very accurate, but 2007 has been a strange season for Ortiz. He’s hit only 19 home runs after blasting a franchise record 54 last year, he’s seen his smile disappear at times because of a knee injury that might require surgery after the season and a sore shoulder he hurt flopping into second base, and he’s failed in those clutch situations that he seemed to be thrive on in the past.
Ortiz’s total production, as measured by VORP, hasn’t fallen too much. Since the season isn’t over yet, it’s more useful to compare his VORP rate (VORPr) because it’s easier to compare rate of production than to look at 75% of this season versus 100% of last season and try to compare those totals. Last season, Ortiz produced .494 runs per game, good for 7th in all of baseball. This year, he’s dropped off only slightly to .486 runs per game, 10th in all of baseball. That’s only a difference of 2 runs over the course of an entire season, so for all the fuss about Oritz’ production being doing significantly, it’s really not.
The reason Ortiz’ production hasn’t plummeted is that despite a drop in his 2006 SLG from .636 (4th overall) to 2007’s .560 (14th overall), his 2006 OBP of .413 (15th overall) has climbed all the way to .431 (3rd overall) in 2007. Fans are obsessed with power, and slugging percentage is indicative of power, so fans cringe when they see a drop in SLG. Fans should realize that OBP is more important than SLG; studies, beginning with Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, have repeatedly proven that 1 point in OBP is worth 3 points in SLG. Because on base percentage is more important to scoring runs than slugging percentage, Ortiz has nearly managed to balance his drop in SLG with an increase in OBP. While home runs are sexy, Ortiz has still been helping the team despite not hitting as many as he has in the past. This is probably due in large part to his nagging injuries that may be causing some of the balls he’s hit to travel to the warning track instead of over the wall. Regardless, Ortiz has been productive and fans shouldn’t worry so much about his home run totals and slugging percentage being down.
In today’s Boston Globe, Gordon Edes wrote about Big Papi's struggles in clutch situations this season.
The idea of clutch has long been dismissed in sabermetric circles. The general argument is that numbers in the clutch are skewed either positively or negatively because of a small sample size. When the number of at bats is so low, generally around 30 or so for a season, a difference of three hits in clutch situations leads to a difference of .100 in AVG. While a number of players seem to always come through, it’s generally more perception than reality. Baseball Prospectus did a study on clutch hitting in their Baseball Between the Numbers and found that if anybody is clutch, it’s generally solid contact hitters who have high averages for their careers in all situations, like Mark Grace, formerly of the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. In general, clutch stats will regress towards overall career totals over time. Theo Epstein echoed this sentiment recently when asked about the Sox failure to hit with runners in scoring position; his response was something along the lines of saying that over time, the team would hit in such situations and things would even out.
(Personally, I agree with sabermetricians that clutch stats are overrated because of the small sample size. Mathematically, there’s really no way around that fact. However, I do think that there is an indefinable clutchness surrounding some players. It probably isn’t quantifiable, which is disappointing, but perhaps the aura surrounding a player like Ortiz is enough to shift the balance of power in his favor? Maybe fear inspired by some players actually boosts their performance or hinders that of their opponents? I’m not sure, but it’s a thought.)
In 2007, Ortiz is hitting a mere .154 with an OPS of .385 in 26 at bats in which the Red Sox have been trailing in a game in the 7th inning or later with at least one man on base when Ortiz came to the plate. He has no home runs and just 2 RBI. In his 4 and a half years with the Red Sox, he has hit 8 home runs, driven in 51, and batted .275 with an OPS of .786 in such situations. This year’s numbers should come as no surprise. Anyone who’s watched the Sox this year has probably seen a situation in which Ortiz has failed to deliver the game tying or game winning hit when everybody expected him to do so. However, over the course of his career, the numbers dictate that this year’s clutch performances aren’t too far from his Sox career norms. Fans were spoiled by last season’s ridiculous 4 home run, 18 RBI, 1.000 OPS performance in such situations. If Ortiz was matching his career averages in clutch situations right now, fans would still be disappointed if viewed in the context of last year’s performance. Additionally, the perception of Ortiz as clutch has probably developed because his biggest hits have come on the biggest stage, the playoffs.
What does all of this mean?
1) Sox fans should stop worrying about Ortiz’ production. He’s producing, he’ll be fine, and the offense will be fine.
2) Ortiz’ injuries are probably sapping his power, but see #1. Next season, the power will likely be back.
3) Clutch statistics are overrated, so take them with a grain of salt. Maybe perception is greater than reality in this case. Don’t worry about his low production in the clutch right now because it’ll even out.
Questions? Comments? Does anybody have a unique view on the clutch?
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